Avanti West Coast, owned by FirstGroup and Trenitalia, is unlikely to have its contract terminated early, according to reports this morning.

The operator has been in trouble over high levels of cancellations, and Transport for the North has called for the government to end the contract, claiming that its terms have been breached.

Mayors in the north of England have supported TfN, with Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham urging the transport secretary to take action.

But legal advice since provided to Louise Haigh says Avanti is not in breach, according to the Financial Times.

First Rail managing director Steve Montgomery has defended his company’s position, saying: ‘FirstGroup has not done anything wrong.’

Unconfirmed reports allege that the company’s current National Rail Contract had 'rewarded failure' and had been written in a way that would make it ’difficult’ for the company to commit a breach on performance grounds. The Department for Transport has not commented on this.

Avanti had been given two six-month contracts to provide an opportunity for recovery, and was then granted a National Rail Contract which started on 15 October 2023 with a minimum contract term of three years, so that the first termination date is 18 October 2026.

The government's Passenger Railway Services (Public Ownership) Bill is set to receive its second reading in the House of Lords on 7 October.

When passed, it will make public ownership of passenger operating contracts the default, rather than the last resort.

Four English operators have been renationalised since 2018, and ten former franchises are currently still in the private sector.

Two of these, Chiltern Railways and Govia Thameslink Railway, are due to reach contract break points on 1 April next year, when they could be terminated.