The latest statistics from the Office of Rail and Road show that revenue from train fares rose by 14 per cent to £10.4 billion between April 2023 and March 2024, but at a slower rate of increase than journeys, which were up by 16 per cent (writes Sim Harris).

The ORR’s method of counting journeys is a little eccentric, because it says it counts every train used in the course of an end-to-end trip, which naturally inflates the total of journeys, as does split ticketing. 

Counting every train used to get from A to B is not, in itself, an exact science, because unless a passenger is travelling on a train-specific Advance ticket (they only account for about 8 per cent of journeys) or on a route where only one train would be used (such as London Paddington to Didcot Parkway, or Edinburgh to Darlington), the ORR cannot always know what individual trains were involved. Quite apart from deliberately breaking a journey, a passenger may be travelling on a route where there are some through services but where a connection is needed at other times.

But allowing for this statistical blurring, the ORR is on safer ground when it counts up the pennies.

If the number of journeys is increasing, why are they not earning the same proportion of additional revenue? One answer might be that the journey calculations are more flawed than we think, and another might be that journeys are, on average, getting shorter.

Some are. The average number of kilometres covered by an average journey between April and June this year was down by 3 per cent on regional journeys and also down by 0.2 per cent in London & South East. The total rose on long distance services by 0.6 per cent, but as London & South East makes the largest contribution, any change there would have the greatest effect on the totals.

Another factor is commuters. The number of commuters, particularly five-days-a-week commuters, has been falling for a long time. Commuters are not counted as such, but the total of journeys made on season tickets used to be a reasonable substitute.

Between April and June 2019, 33 per cent of journeys were made using season tickets, but in the same quarter this year the percentage was down to 12 per cent. But it seems at least possible that some part-time commuters still travelling in the peaks on some days find that Anytime tickets are cheaper than seasons, even ‘flexible’ ones.

Although Covid appears to have dented season ticket sales, it may have simply accelerated an existing trend. The 34 per cent recorded in 2019-20 was significantly less than the 45 per cent in 2009-2010, for example.

If people only use trains to get to work two or three times a week without buying season tickets revenue might go down, but it is worth bearing in mind that some seasons offer a discount of more than 60 per cent on the Anytime fare, and so passengers buying Anytime tickets are paying more, not less, for each journey they make.

Changing circumstances also distort statistics. The Elizabeth Line is doing very well, but at least some of its users will have been diverted from London Underground (particularly the Central Line) or the Docklands Light Railway. All Elizabeth Line travel is counted as part of National Rail, but the Underground and DLR are not. So when the central London section of the Elizabeth Line opened in 2022, did it tip the balance away from Transport for London in favour of National Rail?

Other factors which may have distorted recent figures are the low level of performance achieved by some operators, and the widespread disruption caused by repeated industrial action.

This all goes to show that coming to easy conclusions about travel statistics may be just a little too easy, and such conclusions should be treated with care.